Saturday was one of the most impactful weekends of the college basketball season filled with epic storylines. We had the first installment of the greatest rivalry in basketball between Duke and UNC., and John Calipari and his Arkansas Razorbacks limped into Lexington for Cal’s homecoming in Rupp Arena. Duke and UNC have clashed for decades and the game hasn't lost any meaning. Kentucky and Arkansas have played plenty of times themselves, but this matchup was the most consequential entry to date. One game was over early and went as many expected, while one game turned a certain fanbase upside down with the result.
UNC at (2)Duke
The Duke and UNC rivalry has had one of the most tumultuous chapters in its storied history in the 2020s. It started in the 2019-20 season featuring an elite Duke team and sub .500 UNC team blessing the country with one of the most memorable matchups in the game’s history that featured two buzzer beaters for Duke, including a walkoff by Wendell Moore in Chapel Hill. Duke would win the following game in Durham to sweep the season series. The next year, Duke put together one of its weaker teams of the century, and allowed UNC to come into an empty Cameron Indoor Stadium and leave with a win. UNC also won their home game, giving them the season sweep. The following season, 2021-22, will go down in history. Duke rolled into Chapel Hill and dismantled UNC by 20 points on their own floor. Later that year, in what was Coach Mike Krzyzewski’s final game in Cameron Indoor Stadium, UNC spoiled the goodbye ceremony with a double digit win over Duke. Those two teams would meet in the NCAA Tournament for the first time ever, and UNC and first year head coach Hubert Davis would narrowly beat Duke to head to the title game, ending Coach K’s career. The following year’s games were the first for new Duke coach Jon Scheyer, and he led his team to two narrow wins against UNC, giving them the season sweep. The following year, Davis put together his best team at UNC and handled Duke comfortably both times. It has been a decade of massive wins, last minute victories, and sweeps in 4 of the 5 seasons.
That leads us to this season. Both Duke and UNC opened the season in the AP top 10, which made many think we were due for two more classics between the Tobacco Road Rivals. UNC was returning one of the better backcourts in America including star 5th year senior RJ Davis, upperclassman Seth Trimble, and point guard Elliot Cadeau. Two top 20 recruits and some returning forwards rounded out what was supposed to be another title contending Tar Heel team. Duke was essentially a completely new team coming into the season. Duke returned just 2 scholarship players from the previous season, but as one may expect, welcomed the top recruiting class in America headlined by #1 overall Cooper Flagg. Both teams had high hopes in early November, but coming into the game, the teams were heading down completely different paths. Duke was without a doubt one of the elite teams in basketball and boasted the nation’s longest winning streak, and Carolina came into the game with 9 losses already, including 3 of their past 4 games. But the entire sentiment in the week leading up to the game was that none of that mattered. Strange things happen in rivalry games and it’s best to throw records and any momentum a team may be carrying (whether positive or negative) out the window. However, Vegas seemed to have a clear picture of how the game would play out, setting the opening line at Duke -13.5, one of the largest spreads in Duke/UNC history.
Thirteen and a half points may have seemed like too many points for such an intense rivalry, but after the first 6 minutes of the game, it appeared that 13.5 wasn’t nearly wide enough of a spread. Cooper Flagg (21 points, 8 rebounds, 7 assists) came out of the gates flaming hot with 3 assists and 2 three pointers. Leading 7-6, Duke ripped a 16-0 run to push the lead to to 17 and from that point on the game was never in question. Duke led by as many as 27 in the first half and headed into the halftime locker room with a 22 point lead thanks to a last second Flagg turnaround jumper. UNC looked overwhelmed early, committing multiple live ball turnovers which allowed Duke to run and push in transition against the much smaller tar heel team. Duke has the tallest average roster in America and plays no one under 6’5, yet Hubert Davis decided to start three players 6’3 and shorter, a 6’4 wing, and a 6’8 center.
Duke came out of the half with the same intensity, stretching the lead to 28 points early on thanks to freshman Kon Knueppel (22 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists) knocking down shots from the paint and for three. The Blue Devil lead would stretch to as many as 32 points in the middle of the second half, as Tar Heel substitutions and defensive schemes couldn’t contain Duke’s offense. Carolina did rattle off as much as an 18-2 run late in the game, which is why the final score was separated by a more modest score, but the reality is that Duke won the game in the first 5 minutes and the game was far more of a beat down than the final score cares to show. UNC freshman Drake Powell (12 points, 1 rebound, 1 assist) looked overwhelmed early, but was a key piece of the Tar Heels second half run scoring all 12 of his points in the second half. Carolina can look late into the game for some inspiration and something to build on later in the season.
The Tar Heels look to be squarely on the wrong side of the bubble at this moment. They already have 10 losses and hold few quality wins besides narrow victories over Dayton and UCLA. UNC has played in 9 one possession games, going 5-4 in those contests. A few of those games were against very good teams, meaning the Tar Heels are a few stretches of late game execution away from being a completely different team. The Tar Heels will have a huge opportunity on March 8 to host the Blue Devils in the Dean Dome and potentially grab a season saving win. Duke will head into Chapel Hill on the final Saturday of the season with a chance to make history. Duke is 11–0 in ACC play so far and is heavily favored in all their remaining games except for one. If Duke heads to UNC 19-0 in ACC play, they’ll have a chance to boast the best record and winning percentage in conference history, earn the number one overall seed in March Madness, and beat their most hated rival on their own floor and end their season at the same time. See you in Chapel Hill on March 8th.
Picks: Marquette +3.5, Ole Miss ML, Texas Tech -7.5
Coach Cal’s Homecoming
John Calipari made his long-awaited return to his home for 15 years on Saturday. Rupp Arena, a home that he established himself as one of the all-time great college basketball coaches of our generation. In his 15 seasons at Kentucky, Coach Cal won 6 SEC Titles, 32 Tournament games, appeared in 4 Final Fours, and brought a National Championship to one of the most historic basketball programs of all time. John Calipari walked into Rupp Arena on Saturday night to boo’s. Really? A man who hung 4 Final 4 banners and a Natty champ banner booed as he entered the arena where he spent so much time and was loved by all? Yes, this is college hoops, these fans have no loyalty to coaches who leave their programs! Let us be real too, Coach Cal’s last couple of seasons at Kentucky were not all that glamorous. In two of his last three seasons, he lost to a 15-seed St. Peters team and a 14-seed Oakland team. Big Blue Nation was ready for a change after last year's tournament loss and Cal was open for one, as well. The transition felt like it was pretty smooth as it was just time to move on, but the fans made it pretty clear that there was some bad blood. Shout out to Coach Rick Pitino for that pathetic effort of trying to get the fans to cheer for him, instead of booing. Coach, what’d you expect? You walked into the same arena 20+ years ago after leaving and literally said, “They are not supposed to cheer for me.” Did you expect them to cheer for Cal? NO!
Arkansas has not had a good year at all. This was a team that many thought Cal could lead to a high finish in the SEC in his first year, but clearly, that will not be the case. They are 2-6 in SEC play and just lost one of their best players to a season-ending hand injury, Boogie Fland. Arkansas has the talent and coaching to be a decent team this year but will need some magic to make the tournament now. Could this win be the spark the Razorbacks need to make a late-season push to the NCAA Tournament? I don’t think so, but people are talking.
The game itself was very exciting as Arkansas won 89-79. To no one’s surprise, all of Coach Cal’s luggage got booed alongside him. The Razorbacks top had all 5 starters score in double figures, 3 of which came from Kentucky’s roster last year and one decommitting from Kentucky last April to follow Cal after the announcement. Adou Thiero led Arkansas with 21 points, 10 of which came from the free-throw line. Johnell Davis added 18, with 12 in the 1H, and DJ Wagner added 17. Kentucky clearly missed Lamont Butler, who is out with an undisclosed injury. They struggled offensively all night, while still scoring 79 points. Coming off the huge win at Tennessee without Butler, this team looked lazy to start the 2nd half, where Arkansas basically sealed it. Everyone knows the first 5 minutes of the 2nd half are arguably the most important 5 minutes of the game, in terms of setting the tone. Arkansas went on a 12-2 run to start the second half and take an 11-point lead, they also lead the game from start to finish. Koby Brea was a disappointment, going 1-6 from 3 and finishing with 5 points. If Kentucky wants to win big SEC games, he needs to be on. You saw it when they played Florida and Tennessee, he led the team in scoring and they won both games. He is the most important offensive player outside of Butler and when he is off, the team cannot find a rhythm offensively.
Mark Pope has already established himself as a long-term Kentucky coach, in the eyes of the fans and people around the sport. His team's play style is much different than those of old Cal teams, which relied heavily on talent compared to team ball. Cal’s teams struggled in the tournaments due to relying too much strictly on talent, which doesn't work anymore. With no transfer portal restrictions anymore, teams that have experience outperform those who rely on strictly talent in the tournaments now and Mark Pope has an older, experienced roster. I don’t think I can see this Kentucky team in a Final Four, but I do think this team can at least reach an Elite 8. This team is very fun to watch and they surprise you every night, in both good ways and bad ways. I expect Kentucky to still finish at the top of the SEC, but they need Lamont Butler back and they need him back soon. They’re at Ole Miss tonight and at home against South Carolina on Saturday. Arkansas plays at Texas tomorrow and home against Bama on Saturday.
Mike’s million-dollar money makers:
Purdue -6.5
Kansas State +2.5
Lay:
St. Johns ML + Ole Miss ML + Purdue ML (+230)
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